Conflicting Data on October Home Values Emerge

Australia’s housing market is sending mixed signals. Some major price measures still show a national downturn, while other indicators suggest parts of Sydney and Melbourne may be beginning to stabilise.

Realestate.com.au’s October Home Price Report recorded a seventh consecutive monthly national decline, with prices down 0.3% for the month and 4.3% below their March peak. Melbourne values slipped another 0.1% and remain 6.1% below their October 2025 peak.

However, SQM Research’s latest asking-price data paints a more mixed picture. Melbourne’s combined asking prices were up around 0.7% over the rolling month and 0.7% over the year, while unit asking prices were also higher.

The difference does not necessarily mean one measure is wrong. Each index tracks the market differently, so short-term movements can vary depending on methodology, property mix and timing.

For buyers in Melbourne’s western growth corridor, the mixed data suggests conditions may be becoming more balanced rather than clearly rising or falling.

Some suburbs may continue to soften, giving buyers greater negotiating power, while more affordable pockets could begin to stabilise as buyers respond to lower entry prices.

For investors, this makes local research especially important. Areas with strong rental demand, improving infrastructure and limited supply may perform differently from suburbs where stock is building.

Sellers should also avoid relying too heavily on broad Melbourne averages. Recent comparable sales in the immediate suburb remain the best guide to current buyer expectations.

Overall, the conflicting indicators suggest Melbourne may be moving into a more selective phase of the cycle. Rather than a single city-wide trend, opportunities are increasingly likely to depend on suburb, property type, affordability and local demand.