Why One Percentage Does Not Tell You Everything About the Property Market
Melbourne’s auction clearance rate may look like one simple percentage, but different reporting methods can produce very different results. This article explains what is counted, what may be excluded, why preliminary rates change and how buyers and sellers should interpret the numbers before making property decisions.
Melbourne’s weekly auction clearance rate is often treated as a quick measure of whether the property market is rising or falling.
A high clearance rate is commonly interpreted as evidence of strong buyer demand. A low rate may suggest cautious buyers, unrealistic vendor expectations or weaker selling conditions.
However, the headline percentage is not always as straightforward as it appears.
Different property-data providers may report noticeably different clearance rates for the same market because they collect results at different times, use different geographical boundaries and apply different rules to withdrawn, postponed and unreported auctions.
For buyers and sellers, the real question should not be merely, “What is Melbourne’s clearance rate?”
It should be:
“How was that clearance rate calculated, and what is happening in my specific suburb and price range?”
What the Latest REIV Results Show
For the week ending 19 July 2026, the Real Estate Institute of Victoria reported a statewide auction clearance rate of 70 per cent.
The figure was calculated from 292 reported auctions, including 204 sales and 88 properties that passed in.
However, the same report also recorded 23 withdrawn auctions, 21 postponed auctions and 299 auction results that had not been reported. The clearance rate was also substantially below the 87 per cent recorded during the comparable week one year earlier.
These figures are taken from the REIV’s results for the week ending 19 July 2026.
Reported Auctions Are Not the Same as Scheduled Auctions
The most important distinction is between an auction that was scheduled and one whose result was reported and included in the calculation.
A property may:
- Sell before the scheduled auction
- Sell under the hammer
- Sell immediately after the auction
- Pass in
- Be withdrawn
- Be postponed
- Change to private sale
- Have no result reported by the publication deadline
When a data provider calculates its clearance rate only from known or reported outcomes, the result may not represent every property originally advertised for auction.
The REIV explains that its clearance rate is based on auctions reported to the institute. Withdrawn and postponed properties are excluded because they did not proceed at the originally scheduled time.
That definition is valid, but readers need to understand what the percentage represents.
A 70 per cent clearance rate does not necessarily mean that 70 per cent of every property initially scheduled for auction during that week sold.
Why Another Provider May Publish a Lower Rate
Cotality uses a different methodology. Its auction calculation includes known sales against known results, including properties that passed in and properties withdrawn from auction.
This can produce a lower clearance rate than a calculation that excludes withdrawn properties.
Timing also matters.
For the week ending 12 July 2026, Melbourne’s preliminary Cotality clearance rate was initially reported at 56.2 per cent. When additional outcomes were collected, Melbourne’s final rate was revised to 50.3 per cent.
Successful auction outcomes are often reported quickly. Unsuccessful, withdrawn or unresolved campaigns can take longer to appear in the data.
This is why preliminary clearance rates frequently change as more information becomes available.
The REIV and Cotality publish different definitions and result-collection methods, explaining why their percentages should not be compared without examining the underlying data.
Sold Before Auction Can Strengthen the Clearance Rate
Properties sold before auction are generally counted as successful auction-campaign results.
For the week ending 19 July, the REIV reported 50 properties sold before auction alongside 154 sold at auction.
REA Group recorded 644 Victorian auctions scheduled for the same week and 450 available outcomes. Those available results included 167 properties sold at auction, 64 sold before auction, five sold after auction, 93 withdrawals and 121 pass-ins.
Selling before auction can be an excellent result when the offer is strong, unconditional and supported by comparable evidence.
However, it also means the clearance rate is measuring the success of the broader auction campaign—not only competition occurring under the hammer.
Melbourne Is Not One Auction Market
A metropolitan clearance rate combines many different property markets.
A renovated family home in a tightly held school zone may attract several bidders, while an unrenovated property, development site or premium residence may face far less competition during the same week.
Results can differ according to:
- Suburb and school zone
- Property type and condition
- Price range
- Land size and development potential
- Buyer borrowing capacity
- Vendor reserve expectations
- Quality of presentation and marketing
- Number of competing properties
A citywide clearance rate cannot determine the market value of an individual home.
Comparable sales, active competition and genuine buyer feedback remain more useful when setting a selling strategy.
What a Lower Clearance Rate Means for Sellers
A softer clearance rate generally signals that buyers have more choice and are less willing to meet ambitious vendor expectations.
Sellers should focus on campaign-specific evidence:
- Number of inspections
- Repeat visits
- Contract requests
- Building inspections
- Registered bidders
- Finance readiness
- Buyer feedback on price
- Comparable properties competing that weekend
When buyer feedback consistently falls below the expected reserve, waiting until auction day to confront the gap can reduce the chance of a successful sale.
A realistic reserve, strong presentation and disciplined follow-up remain essential.
What It Means for Buyers
A lower clearance rate can create more opportunities to negotiate, especially when a property passes in.
The highest bidder normally receives the first opportunity to negotiate with the vendor after the auction. Buyers should therefore understand their limit, have finance and legal checks prepared, and avoid assuming that every passed-in property will be heavily discounted.
Desirable and accurately priced homes can still attract strong competition during a weaker market.
Rav Sri’s Final View
Auction clearance rates are useful—but they are a market indicator, not a complete valuation tool.
The same week can produce different clearance rates depending on the provider’s methodology, the number of results collected and whether withdrawn properties are counted.
Sellers should not select a reserve simply because the metropolitan clearance rate appears strong. Buyers should not assume that a lower clearance rate guarantees a bargain.
The most reliable strategy is to combine broad market information with local comparable sales, campaign activity, bidder depth and professional assessment.
As a licensed Victorian real estate professional with more than two decades of sales and marketing experience, Rav Sri helps property owners interpret market evidence and prepare practical pricing, presentation and negotiation strategies.
Considering selling, buying or reviewing your auction strategy?
Book a 30-minute consultation with Rav Sri, call +61 428 192 899, email Rav@Ravs.com.au, or connect through WhatsApp.
